This project is examining Russia’s intentions in the Black Sea, its tools and instruments of influence, and what future actions it is likely to take there during and after the war with Ukraine. We are viewing these issues through three analytic lenses: how Russia engages with individual littoral states to advance its interests; how Russia exploits or is affected by the Black Sea’s role as a conduit of critical flows of food, energy, goods, services and people; and how the Black Sea relates to Russian interests in adjoining regions – the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the Caucasus.

Russia’s Intentions and Actions towards Black Sea States:

• Russia and Romania. Who’s Dracula Now?, Iulia-Sabina Joja, Black Sea Program, Middle East Institute, Georgetown University, George Washington University
• Ever Increasing Circles: How Bulgaria Is Straying from Russia’s Orbit, Maksim Samorukov, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
• Russia Recalibrates Its Aims in Strategic Partnership with Turkey, Pavel K. Baev, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), The Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE), Brookings Institution, The French International Affairs Institute (IFRI)
• Russia’s Policy Towards Georgia: Exploring Security and Connectivity Vulnerabilities, Stefan Meister, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
• Russia’s Intentions and Actions Toward Moldova, Carolina Bogatiuc, Citizens for Europe

Russia’s Effort to Leverage Critical Flows in the Black Sea Region:

• The Black Sea’s Evolving Geopolitical and Economic Role for Russia Post-Ukraine Invasion, Giorgi Khishtovani, Irakli Sirbiladze, and Gocha Kardava, Policy and Management Consulting Group (PMCG)
• Russia’s Intentions and Actions Toward Flows of People in the Black Sea Region, Oleksii Pozniak, Institute for Demography and Life Quality Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

How the Black Sea Relates to Russia’s Interests in Adjoining Regions:

• Russia’s Interests in the Black Sea and Mediterranean, Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA Corporation and Harvard University
• Russia, the South Caucasus and the Black Sea, Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Europe
• Russia, the Black Sea, and the Middle East, Mark N. Katz, George Mason University